Marketplace boosts to drive overall growth this year

China"s raft of new policies will inject greater momentum into the marketplace, which will have a strong impact in the second half of the year and drive overall growth for the entire year, experts said on Wednesday.

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to unveil new economic figures for May on Thursday, which will be closely watched by market analysts both in and outside China after moderate growth in industrial output and retail sales were recorded in April.

"China"s current economic recovery paints a mixed picture with strong economic data in the first quarter and a bit dimmer ones in April. Yet, we expect the freshly unveiled policy measures to see tangible deliverables in the second half of this year, reducing businesses" operating costs, and energize the market," said Shi Yinghua, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences.

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Consumption growth is crucial for the full-year recovery, Shi said. However, a resilient recovery in consumption requires improvements on multiple fronts, including increasing household income and employment confidence.

"Diversification and enrichment from the supply side with high-quality products is critical to energize consumers" willingness to spend," she said, adding that greater consumption growth may require patience and further structural reform steps.

In recent days, Chinese authorities have been extending a stream of policy support to the economy that has impressed the markets. On Tuesday, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country"s top economic planner, released 22 measures to lower costs for firms this year, including exempting and reducing value-added tax for a large number of small firms and giving them more affordable loans.

On the same day, the People"s Bank of China, the nation"s central bank, announced a cut in the interest rate on seven-day reverse repurchase operations to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent, the first cut in short-term lending rates since August. The central bank said it has injected 2 billion yuan ($280 million) into the banking system at the new, lower rate.

The lending rate cuts are seen as an indication of a shift to a looser policy stance and will help the country"s smaller businesses tide themselves over during challenging times. Economists expect both the medium-term lending facility rate and loan prime rate, a key lending rate reference for businesses, to go down soon.

"After the cut in the short-term policy lending rate, the PBOC is highly likely to deliver a cut to the one-year MLF rate, which is … the most important benchmark rate in the PBOC"s policy rate regime", said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, adding they believe the central bank will deliver a 10 basis point one-year MLF rate cut on Thursday, and a similar sized cut to the LPR on June 20.

Wen Bin, the chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said that going forward, efforts are needed to maintain policy stability and continuity, and strengthen the coordination of monetary policy, fiscal policy, income distribution and other macro policies.

"This will further boost market confidence, stimulate domestic investment and consumer demand, and thus consolidate the foundation for steady economic recovery," Wen said

Mara Warwick, World Bank country director for China, Mongolia and Korea, said, "Implementation of key structural reforms remains crucial to solidify the recovery and achieve China"s longer-term goals of environmentally sustainable, resilient and inclusive growth".

"The economic recovery provides opportunities for further reducing financial risks, strengthening the social safety net, and implementing market reforms to encourage private investment while putting the economy on a more efficient decarbonization path," she said.

The latest report by the World Bank, issued on Wednesday, projected 5.6 percent annual growth for China"s GDP this year, 0.4 percentage point higher than its projection in January. The report said the faster growth would be mainly led by a rebound in consumer demand, while spending on infrastructure and manufacturing will remain resilient.

China set its GDP growth target for this year at around 5 percent. The economy grew by 4.5 percent year-on-year for the first quarter.

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